:Product: 1219RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2007 Dec 19 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2007
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  These elevated
conditions were due to a coronal hole high speed stream.  Solar wind
speed at the ACE spacecraft peaked late yesterday between 18/1900Z
and 19/0100Z with maximum values around 700 km/s.  Since then solar
wind speed has been steadily declining with values around 600 km/s
at forecast issue time.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately quiet to unsettled levels.  However,
there is a chance for isolated active conditions on 20 and 21
December, due to the continued influence of the high speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Dec 075
Predicted   20 Dec-22 Dec  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        19 Dec 071
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec  011/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec  010/010-010/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/15
Minor storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/05