:Product: 0717RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Jul 17 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  The visible disk remained
spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  Solar wind
speed, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, indicated a gradual
decrease in velocities from about 530 km/s at the beginning of the
period, to near 460 km/s by forecast issue time.  The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (18 - 20 July).
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jul 065
Predicted   18 Jul-20 Jul  066/066/066
90 Day Mean        17 Jul 067
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul  004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jul  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul  005/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/10/10
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01