:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Sep 29 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for
isolated active conditions at high latitudes for day one (30
September) of the forecast period.  On day two (01 October) activity
is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels with a chance
for minor storm periods at middle latitudes and major storm
conditions at high latitudes due to a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream.  Activity should decrease to quiet to unsettled levels
with a chance for isolated active conditions at high latitudes for
day three (02 October) as the high speed stream continues.
III.  Event Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Sep 067
Predicted   30 Sep-02 Oct  066/066/066
90 Day Mean        29 Sep 066
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct  008/010-020/025-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/10
Minor storm           05/25/05
Major-severe storm    01/10/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/40/20
Minor storm           15/30/15
Major-severe storm    05/15/05