:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Oct 03 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions.  Solar wind
observations from the ACE spacecraft show a continued influence of
the recurrent coronal hole high speed solar wind stream.  Solar wind
speed has averaged around 660 km/s with Bz fluctuations from +/- 4
nT.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with possible isolated
active periods for 04-05 October.  Mostly quiet conditions are
expected for 06 October.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Oct 067
Predicted   04 Oct-06 Oct  066/066/066
90 Day Mean        03 Oct 066
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct  011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct  007/010-007/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01