:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Nov 08 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
The visible disk was spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. ACE
solar wind data indicated Earth remained within a recurrent coronal
hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind velocities gradually
increased from approximately 440 to 600 km/sec during the period.
IMF Bt was enhanced at the start of the period (peak 13 nT), then
gradually decreased to a low of 2 nT late in the period. IMF Bz
ranged from 08 to -09 nT during the first half of the period, then
settled to a range of 04 to -04 nT for the rest of the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for
active levels on day 1 (09 November) as the CH HSS gradually
subsides. Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels
for the rest of the period (10 - 11 November).
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Nov 068
Predicted   09 Nov-11 Nov  068/068/068
90 Day Mean        08 Nov 068
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov  015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov  007/010-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01