:Product: 1110RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Nov 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Newly numbered Region 1008
(N33E01) emerged on the disk today and managed to produce todays
only event, a B3 x-ray flare at 2031Z. The group is a small (40
millionths), fairly simple D-type sunspot group although there is
some weak polarity mixing in the trailer part of the region.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly very low for the next three days (11-13 November).
There is a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare from Region
1008 if it continues to emerge.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was generally quiet during the past 24 hours.
ACE solar wind data showed a steady decline of solar wind velocity
during the past 24 hours with day-end values around 400 km/s. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (11-13 November).
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Nov 069
Predicted   11 Nov-13 Nov  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        10 Nov 068
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov  010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01