:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Dec 31 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 366 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
The visible disk was spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. ACE
solar wind measurements indicated a recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream began early in the summary period. Velocities
gradually increased from 305 to 559 km/sec during the period. IMF
changes associated with the transition to the high-speed stream
included increased Bt (peak 17 nT at 31/0000Z) and intermittent
periods of southward Bz (minimum -16 nT at 31/0131Z).
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to range from quiet to active levels during days 1 - 2
(January 1 - 2) as the coronal hole high-speed stream continues.
Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on day
3 (3 January) as the high-speed stream subsides.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Dec 069
Predicted   01 Jan-03 Jan  069/069/069
90 Day Mean        31 Dec 069
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Dec  012/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan  008/008-012/012-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/20
Minor storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01