:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Jul 06 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1024 (S27W26) produced
an isolated C1/Sf flare at 06/1705Z. Region 1024 showed minor decay
with loss of some intermediate spots, but retained a mix of
polarities near region center.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels during days 1 - 2 (07 - 08 July).
Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on day
3 (09 July) due to an increase in solar wind velocities associated
with a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jul 070
Predicted   07 Jul-09 Jul  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        06 Jul 070
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jul  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul  005/005-005/005-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01