:Product: 0210RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Feb 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 041 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Todays activity consisted of 3
C-class events, as well as numerous B-class events.  Region 1045
(N22W39) produced the largest event of the day, a C3.7 flare at
10/1514Z, but is beginning to show signs of decay.  Region 1046
(N24E28) and Region 1047 (S18E43) remain stable and quiet. There is
a recurrent, southern hemisphere coronal hole near the center disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominately low. However, there is a chance for an isolated
M-class flare for the next 3 days (11-13 February).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled on day 1 (11 February).  An increase to
unsettled with a slight chance for active conditions is expected on
day 2 (12 February), and unsettled conditions are expected on day 3
(13 February). The activity is forecast as a response to CME
activity on 6 February.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
Class M    30/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Feb 091
Predicted   11 Feb-13 Feb  090/090/092
90 Day Mean        10 Feb 078
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb  001/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb  010/010-012/012-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/30
Minor storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/40/35
Minor storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01