:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Feb 11 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 042 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1045 (N22W52) is
beginning to show signs of decay.  Region 1046 (N23E15) intensified
during the period, producing a C1.1/sf flare at 11/1941Z, the
largest event of the period.  A well defined, recurrent, southern
extension coronal hole is nearing 20E.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
However, there is a chance for an isolated M-class event during the
period (12-14 February).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with a single period of
unsettled conditions observed between 06-09Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled on day 1 (12 February). A decrease to quiet
with a slight chance for unsettled conditions on days 2 and 3 (13-14
February) is expected.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Feb 094
Predicted   12 Feb-14 Feb  094/095/095
90 Day Mean        11 Feb 079
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb  001/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb  010/010-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/35/35
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01