:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Feb 12 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 043 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity ranged from low to high. At 12/0726Z,
Region 1046 (N24E13) produced an impulsive C7.9/1n flare with an
associated 140 sfu Tenflare.  Four hours later, the region produced
the largest event of the period, an impulsive M8.3/1n flare with an
associated 350 sfu Tenflare.  LASCO C2 and Stereo-B imagery depicted
a potentially geoeffective, asymmetrical, full-halo CME from this
event.  Later in the period, Region 1045 (N28W53) produced a M1.1/2f
at 12/1808Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with M-class flares likely.  A chance of high activity
exists for the next 3 days (13-15 February).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with a brief period of
unsettled conditions from 12/03-09Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (13 February), returning
to quiet on day 2 (14 February), and unsettled to active with a
chance for minor storming on day 3 (15 February).  The activity
forecasted is due to CME and expected coronal hole high speed stream
effects.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Feb 096
Predicted   13 Feb-15 Feb  098/098/098
90 Day Mean        12 Feb 079
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb  008/010-005/007-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/40
Minor storm           10/05/30
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/15/45
Minor storm           10/05/35
Major-severe storm    01/01/10