:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Feb 13 2226 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
::::::::::CORRECTED COPY::::::::::
SDF Number 044 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2010 
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Regions 1045 (N24W69) and 1046
(N23W11) were stable during the period producing only low level
C-class events.  Both regions maintained Beta-Gamma magnetic
classifications.  New Region 1048 (N23E90) was numbered during the
period after producing two C-class flares, the largest a C9.6 event
at 13/1239Z, observed on SXI from around the east limb. No spots
have been reported yet.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with a chance for high activity on days 1-3 (14-16
February).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with a single period of
unsettled conditions from 13/15-18Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for day 1 (14 February).  Unsettled to active
conditions with a chance for isolated minor storming is expected on
day 2 (15 February) with an increased chance for minor storming on
day 3 (16 February).  Activity is associated with the midday, day 2
arrival of the 13 February CME, and a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Feb 094
Predicted   14 Feb-16 Feb  095/095/095
90 Day Mean        13 Feb 079
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb  005/005-012/012-018/018
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/40/45
Minor storm           01/30/35
Major-severe storm    01/10/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/45/45
Minor storm           05/35/40
Major-severe storm    01/10/15