:Product: 0301RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Mar 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 060 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No significant flares were
detected during the forecast period. New Regions 1052 (S16W25) and
1053 (S23W33) were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low due to the return of old Region 1045 (N24, L242) and two
newly numbered regions 1052 and 1053.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet. An increase to unsettled
levels was observed between 1500Z and 1800Z. The increase was in
response to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (02 March) due to the
coronal hole mentioned above. Activity is expected to be at quiet
levels on days two and three (03 - 04 March) as the coronal hole
effects subside.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Mar 078
Predicted   02 Mar-04 Mar  084/084/084
90 Day Mean        01 Mar 080
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar  007/007-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/05/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01