:Product: 0316RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Mar 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 075 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1054 (N14W25) was in a gradual decay phase with
decreased spot count and area as well as a decrease in magnetic
complexity. No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels for the next three days (17-19 March) with a chance
for an isolated C-class flare from Region 1054.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind observations from the ACE spacecraft showed a minor
increase is speed values ranging from 350-440 km/s indicating the
arrival of a coronal hole high-speed stream.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next two days
(17-18 March) due to a coronal hole high-speed stream on day one and
the arrival of partial halo CME arriving on day two. Geomagnetic
activity levels are expected to return to quiet levels on day three
(19 March).
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Mar 085
Predicted   17 Mar-19 Mar  084/084/084
90 Day Mean        16 Mar 082
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar  007/007-007/007-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/10
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/10
Minor storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01