:Product: 0501RSGA.txt :Issued: 2010 May 01 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2010 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was low. GOES-14 SXI imagery observed a C5.7/sf x-ray flare at 01/0139Z. The source of this event was located just beyond the east limb at N24. The remainder of the disk and limb was quiet and stable. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with C-class flares likely including a slight chance of M-class activity, all due from the active area on the NE limb. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for day one (02 May). Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active levels, are expected on day two (03 May). A further increase in activity to unsettled to active, with isolated minor storm periods, is expected on day three (04 May). Isolated major storm periods at high latitudes is also possible on day three. The expected increase in activity on 03 - 04 May is due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream rotating into a geoeffective position. III. Event Probabilities 02 May-04 May Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 May 078 Predicted 02 May-04 May 080/082/084 90 Day Mean 01 May 081 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May 005/005-010/012-018/035 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May-04 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/20/30 Minor storm 01/10/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 05/20/35 Minor storm 01/15/20 Major-severe storm 01/01/15