:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 May 02 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Only weak B-class activity
was observed. Three new regions were numbered during the period.
Regions 1065 (S32W16) and 1066 (S27E16) formed on the disk as
single, unipolar spot groups. Region 1067 (N23E56) rotated on the
disk as a bi-polar spot group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.  C-class activity is likely from Region 1067.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels during
the period. Activity was quiet through about 1100Z when levels
increased to active to minor storming at middle latitudes, with
major storm periods observed at high latitudes. At about 0900Z,
observations from the ACE spacecraft indicated increases in
temperature, density and wind velocity, while the Bz component of
the interplanetary magnetic field showed strong negative incursions
to -20 nT. Wind speeds gradually increased from about 375 km/s to
near 700 km/s by 1645Z. Thereafter, wind speeds leveled out to about
650 km/s, and remained so through the balance of the period. These
signatures were indicative of a co-rotating interaction region in
advance of a recurrent coronal hole high speed wind stream.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels, with isolated minor
storm periods at middle latitudes for days one and two (03 - 04
May). During the same period, high latitudes should expect similar
conditions with isolated major storm periods. This activity is due
to a geoeffective, recurrent coronal hole high speed wind stream. By
day three (05 May), activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet
to unsettled levels with isolated active periods at middle
latitudes, while high latitudes could see isolated minor storm
periods.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 May-05 May
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 May 080
Predicted   03 May-05 May  082/084/086
90 Day Mean        02 May 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 May  001/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May  020/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May  020/035-020/035-015/018
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May-05 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/25
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/45/30
Minor storm           20/20/10
Major-severe storm    10/10/01