:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 May 20 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 20 May 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low. The visible disk
remained spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled with one isolated
active period at 20/0300Z. Solar wind data from ACE indicated a
steady decay in velocity from 525 km/s to 475 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period
possible during day one (21 May). Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected on days two and three (May 22-23) as the coronal hole high
speed stream subsides.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 May-23 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 May 069
Predicted   21 May-23 May  070/072/072
90 Day Mean        20 May 079
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 May  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 May  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May  008/008-006/007-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 May-23 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/20/10
Minor storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01