:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 May 28 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 148 Issued at 2200Z on 28 May 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  Region 1072 (S15W79)
produced a B1 x-ray event at 27/2315Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.  An interplanetary
shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft at 28/0203Z.  Boulder
magnetometer observed a 33 nT sudden impulse at 28/0259Z, the
activity is most likely due to the arrival of the CME observed on
May 23.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately unsettled levels with a chance for
active periods on day one (29 May) as the CMEs from 23-24 May
continue to be geo-effective.  Unsettled to active levels are likely
are on days two and three (30-31 May) due to the arrival of a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.  In addition, there is a
slight chance for isolated minor storm periods during the high speed
stream interval.
III.  Event Probabilities 29 May-31 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 May 073
Predicted   29 May-31 May  073/073/072
90 Day Mean        28 May 078
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 May  001/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 May  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May  018/020-020/025-012/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 May-31 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/55/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/50/35
Minor storm           20/25/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10