:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jun 04 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1076 (S19W49) has decayed in white light areal
coverage but remains a beta magnetic classification. No flares were
observed. However, a full-halo CME was observed on LASCO C2 imagery
at 04/1202Z. The CME appears to be a backsided event and is not
expected to become geoeffective.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a slight chance for C-class events for the next
three days (05-07 June).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels with an
isolated minor storm period from 0000Z-0300Z for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind data from the ACE spacecraft indicate the continuation of
a high speed solar wind stream with wind speeds around 550 km/s. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled levels with a chance for an isolated
active period for the first day (05 June) due to persistence and the
forecasted arrival of the CME observed on 31 May. Mostly quiet
conditions are expected on the second day (06 June). Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected with a chance for active periods
on the third day (07 June) due to a coronal hole high-speed stream
moving into geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jun 072
Predicted   05 Jun-07 Jun  072/072/072
90 Day Mean        04 Jun 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun  013/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jun  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun  010/010-005/005-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/30
Minor storm           10/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/20/35
Minor storm           15/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01