:Product: 0705RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Jul 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  New Region 1086 (N18W53)
formed on the disk as a simple beta sunspot group.  A CME was
observed lifting off behind the NE limb late in the period.  SOHO
LASCO C2 imagery first observed this event at 05/1754Z, as well as
STEREO-B COR2 imagery shortly afterwards at 05/1810Z.  The CME
appears to be associated with old Region 1082 (N27, L=305) due to
return on 10 July.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the past 24
hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels during the next three days (06
- 08 July).
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jul 073
Predicted   06 Jul-08 Jul  074/074/074
90 Day Mean        05 Jul 075
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01