:Product: 0714RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Jul 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 1087 (N20E08) produced
two C-class events.  The first was a C1 flare at 14/1230Z and the
second was a C3 flare at 14/2047Z.  1087 is a Dso group with a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration and has shown little change in
areal coverage and spot number during the last 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.  There is a slight chance for an  isolated M-class event
from Region 1087.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.  The solar wind monitor on
the ACE spacecraft indicated a sector boundary crossing into a
positive sector at approximately 14/0900Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods
on day one (15 July) due to a coronal hole high speed stream.  Quiet
conditions are expected to return on days two and three (16-17
July).
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jul 078
Predicted   15 Jul-17 Jul  078/078/078
90 Day Mean        14 Jul 074
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul  001/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/05/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/05/05
Minor storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01