:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jul 15 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours. 
Region 1087 (N19W05) has slightly decreased in spot number and is
currently a Cso group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.  There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event
from Region 1087.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels.  The
solar wind monitor on the ACE spacecraft indicated the onset of a
coronal hole high speed stream at 14/1900Z with solar wind speeds
increasing to 500 km/s early in the period and gradually decreasing
thereafter.  Early in the period, Bt increased to 18nT while Bz
decreased to -16nT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods
on day one (16 July) due to a coronal high speed stream.  Quiet
levels are expected on days two and three (17-18 July).
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jul 076
Predicted   16 Jul-18 Jul  076/075/074
90 Day Mean        15 Jul 074
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul  007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul  008/010-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/05/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/05/05
Minor storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01