:Product: 1119RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Nov 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. All three visible active regions remained stable and
quiet. A filament disappeared near N30E41 at 18/1721Z. A
slow-moving, CME was detected at 18/2224Z by SOHO LASCO c2 imagery
and did not appear to be earth directed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels for the next three days (20-22 November).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
Observations from the ACE spacecraft showed solar wind speeds
decreasing throughout the period, from 550km/s to 350 km/s, as the
effects of a coronal hole high-speed stream wane. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during
the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (20-22
November).
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Nov 084
Predicted   20 Nov-22 Nov  084/084/082
90 Day Mean        19 Nov 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01