:Product: 1205RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Dec 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low. New Regions 1132
(N12W15), a Dro-Beta type, and Region 1133 (N14E58), an Hrx-Beta
type, spot groups were numbered today. Occasional B class x-ray
events were observed during the period. Region 1132 produced the
periods largest activity with a B5 class x-ray event at 24/2111Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominately very low with a chance for isolated C class events
from Region 1132 for the next three days (06-08 December).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on days one and two (06-07 December). Day three
(08 December) is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight
chance for isolated  active conditions late in the period. The
increase in activity is forecast due to a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream becoming geoeffective.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Dec 088
Predicted   06 Dec-08 Dec  089/089/089
90 Day Mean        05 Dec 082
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec  001/001
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec  005/005-005/005-007/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05