:Product: 0920RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Sep 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Sep 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. A spot group complex consisting
of Regions 1295 (N23W35), 1296 (N27W16) and 1298 (N15W36) produced
several C-class events in the past 24 hours, including a C9/1f flare
at 20/0513Z. SOHO LASCO imagery observed 4 CMEs again this period,
none of which are expected to be geoeffective. Region 1295 remains a
beta gamma magnetic configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (21-23 September). A chance for isolated
M-class flares exists from the Region 1295 complex.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated active period
from 20/0300-0600Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (21-23
September).
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Sep 144
Predicted   21 Sep-23 Sep  145/145/145
90 Day Mean        20 Sep 104
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Sep  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Sep  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01