:Product: 0111RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Jan 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 011 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Nominal C-class flares
occurred.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a chance for a M-class flare for the next 3 days
(12-14 January).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be mostly quiet on day 1 (12 January). Conditions are
expected to increase for days 2-3 (13-14 January), with possible
unsettled and active conditions due to a high speed stream (HSS)
from a coronal hole (CH).
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jan 120
Predicted   12 Jan-14 Jan  120/120/120
90 Day Mean        11 Jan 145
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan  000/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan  003/005-007/008-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor storm           01/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01