:Product: 0405RSGA.txt :Issued: 2012 Apr 05 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 096 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels for the past 24 hours. Region 1450 (N15W31) produced a B9 flare at 05/1327Z and a C3/1f flare at 05/1624Z. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with C-class flares likely for the next three days (06-08 April). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours with minor to severe storm periods at high latitudes. The increased activity was associated with periods of sustained southward IMF Bz and increased IMF Bt associated with intermittent solar sector boundary changes. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (6 April) due to the weak CME that was associated with the filament eruption that occurred on 02 April. The field is expected to return to quiet levels on day two (7 April), then be at quiet to unsettled levels due to a coronal hole high speed stream becoming geoeffective on day three (8 April). III. Event Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Apr 101 Predicted 06 Apr-08 Apr 105/110/115 90 Day Mean 05 Apr 117 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr 010/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr 007/008-006/005-007/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/05/10 Minor storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/20 Minor storm 25/15/25 Major-severe storm 10/05/15