:Product: 0410RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Apr 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. A new region, Region 1454 (S13E70), was numbered today as
it rotated onto the east limb.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels for the next three days (11 - 13 April).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft,
varied around 320 - 360 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 April) as
effects from a CME, observed on 7 April, are possible. Quiet to
unsettled  levels with a chance for active levels are expected on
days two and three (12 - 13 April) as a coronal hole high speed
stream becomes geoeffective.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Apr 093
Predicted   11 Apr-13 Apr  090/090/090
90 Day Mean        10 Apr 115
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr  007/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Apr  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr  007/008-008/012-007/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/30
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/35/35
Minor storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/05