:Product: 0415RSGA.txt :Issued: 2012 Apr 15 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity increased to low levels. Two low-level C-class flares occurred from a source beyond the northeast limb. Region 1459 (S16E64) produced occasional B-class flares while it rotated more fully into view as a Dai-type group with a beta magnetic classification. Region 1455 (N05W46) showed intermediate spot development during the period and was classified as a Dsi-type with a beta magnetic classification. Small Axx-type Region 1454 (S12W00) produced a B9 x-ray flare at 15/0908Z associated with a slow partial-halo CME, which is not expected to be geoeffective. No new regions were numbered. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low through the period (16 - 18 April). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity decreased to mostly quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels during the period (16 - 18 April). III. Event Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 15 Apr 102 Predicted 16 Apr-18 Apr 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 15 Apr 113 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr 007/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr 004/005-004/005-004/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01