:Product: 0422RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Apr 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Occasional low-level C-class
flares occurred. Region 1459 (S15W25 - Dki/beta) produced a single
C-class flare and showed signs of gradual decay in its intermediate
portion. Region 1465 (S18E14 - Dai/beta) produced two C-class flares
and showed spot and penumbral development as well as some polarity
mixing in its intermediate portion. New Region 1466 (N12E29 -
Cso/beta) emerged early in the period and gradually grew. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (23 - 25 April) with a chance for an isolated
M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels with a
brief interval of active levels at high latitudes.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (23 -
24 April) with a chance for active levels due mainly to a recurrent
coronal hole high-speed stream. Weak CME-passage effects are also
possible on day 1 from the partial-halo CME observed on 19 April.
Field activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels on day
3 (25 April).
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Apr 148
Predicted   23 Apr-25 Apr  145/145/140
90 Day Mean        22 Apr 112
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr  010/010-008/010-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/15
Minor storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor storm           10/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01