:Product: 0705RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Jul 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was high. Region 1515 (S17W36) produced
an M6/1b at 05/1144Z along with several low-level M-class flares.
The region continued to grow slightly in areal coverage and
maintained a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Region 1513
(N15W52) grew as well but did not produce any further M-class
activity since yesterdays report.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a chance for X-class flares for the next three days
(06-08 July).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period due to residual effects from a coronal hole high speed stream
(CH HSS). Solar wind speed decreased throughout the period to
approximately 475 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on days one and two (06-07 July) as
effects from the CH HSS subside. Unsettled to active conditions are
likely on day three (08 July), with a chance for isolated minor
storm periods, due to effects from the CME associated with the M1/2n
flare observed at 04/1639Z from Region 1513.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jul 165
Predicted   06 Jul-08 Jul  165/165/160
90 Day Mean        05 Jul 121
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul  011/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul  009/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul  009/008-007/012-017/022
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/45
Minor storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor storm           15/30/30
Major-severe storm    10/30/55