:Product: 0725RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Jul 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jul 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Slight growth was
observed in Region 1526 (S17W00).  The remainder of the disk and
limb was quiet and stable.  A relatively slow moving CME
(approximate plane-of-sky speed of 350 km/s) was observed off the
southern limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 25/0236Z. 
Correlations with STEREO-A COR2 imagery indicated ejecta movement
was slightly south of the ecliptic plane with a possible
Earth-directed component.  This CME was likely the result of a small
filament eruption just south of central disk observed in H-alpha
imagery at approximately 24/2235Z.  A preliminary WSA ENLIL model
run of the event indicated a weak impact early on 29 July.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  Solar wind speed
measured at the ACE spacecraft continued to decline from
approximately 500 km/s to 440 km/s.  The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux at geosynchronous orbit continued to be enhanced around 8 pfu.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on days 1 - 2 (26 - 27 July).  By mid to
late on day 3 (28 July), a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream
is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position resulting in
unsettled to active conditions.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     10/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Jul 105
Predicted   26 Jul-28 Jul  110/115/115
90 Day Mean        25 Jul 125
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jul  010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jul  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul  006/005-006/005-011/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/25
Minor storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/30