:Product: 0801RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Aug 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Regions 1528 (N17W56), 1532
(S19W14), 1535 (N18E37), 1536 (S22W01), and 1538 (S22E54) all
produced low level C-class flares.  Region 1536 is the most
magnetically complex group on the visible disk with a weak
Beta-gamma configuration.  No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections
(CMEs) were observed during the reporting period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels with a chance for M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
possible on day 1 (02 August) due to effects from the 28 July CME. 
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day 2 (03 August). 
Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day 3 (04 August).
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Aug 150
Predicted   02 Aug-04 Aug  155/155/150
90 Day Mean        01 Aug 127
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug  008/010-007/008-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/05
Minor storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    30/20/05