:Product: 0803RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Aug 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Regions 1538 (S22E28), 1539
(S23E45), and 1540 (S27E60) produced C-class flares; the largest was
a C2/1f from Region 1539 at 0600Z associated with a Type II radio
sweep (estimated velocity: 622 km/s).  A slow CME was observed off
the southeast limb at 0624Z but is not expected to be geoeffective. 
Two new regions were numbered: Region 1540 (S27E60), a small bipolar
group and Region 1541 (S15E64), a small unipolar spot.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels
throughout the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (August 04-06).
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Aug 140
Predicted   04 Aug-06 Aug  140/135/135
90 Day Mean        03 Aug 127
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug  016/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug  006/005-006/005-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05