:Product: 0805RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Aug 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1532 (S18W64) produced a
few nominal C-class x-ray events. No CMEs were observed and no new
active regions were numbered during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next 3 days (6-8 August).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for days 1-2 (6-7 August). Unsettled to
active conditions are forecast for day 3 (8 August), due to an
anticipated glancing blow from the CME on 4 August.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Aug 134
Predicted   06 Aug-08 Aug  135/135/130
90 Day Mean        05 Aug 128
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug  006/005-006/005-007/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/25