:Product: 0824RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Aug 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No CMEs observed in the
past 24 hours are expected to be geoeffective. New Region 1554
(N16E12) was numbered overnight and has developed into a Dai type
spot group with a beta magnetic configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with active to
minor storm levels at high latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
periods.  A chance exists for minor to major storm levels at high
latitudes.  Increased activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Aug 104
Predicted   25 Aug-27 Aug  105/110/110
90 Day Mean        24 Aug 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug  011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Aug  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug  007/008-011/012-006/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/35/25