:Product: 1015RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Oct 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate levels. The period began above
the M1 threshold, while in recovery from the M2 flare at 14/2121 UTC,
from a region around the East limb. No other flares occurred during the
period. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Oct, 17 Oct, 18 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 580 km/s at 15/0040Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 14/2213Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 14/2344Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Oct 126
Predicted   16 Oct-18 Oct 130/140/150
90 Day Mean        15 Oct 130

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct  012/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct  013/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct  013/012-008/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/30/30