:Product: 1107RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Nov 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
07/1726Z from Region 2205 (N15E32). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Nov, 09
Nov, 10 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
523 km/s at 07/2003Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 07/1851Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 07/1956Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (08 Nov,
09 Nov, 10 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (08 Nov, 09 Nov, 10 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Nov 146
Predicted   08 Nov-10 Nov 148/148/148
90 Day Mean        07 Nov 141

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov   008/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov  007/008-008/008-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    30/30/40