:Product: 0718RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jul 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jul 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
18/1442Z from Region 2388 (N14W81). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (19 Jul, 20 Jul, 21 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 395 km/s at
17/2104Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5016 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (19 Jul, 20 Jul) and
quiet levels on day three (21 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jul 096
Predicted   19 Jul-21 Jul 095/095/090
90 Day Mean        18 Jul 121

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jul  007/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jul  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul  008/010-010/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           35/35/20
Major-severe storm    35/35/20