:Product: 0623RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jun 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (24 Jun, 25 Jun, 26 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 494 km/s at 23/2053Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 22/2206Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
23/1530Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 135 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (24 Jun, 26
Jun) and quiet to active levels on day two (25 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jun 078
Predicted   24 Jun-26 Jun 080/085/085
90 Day Mean        23 Jun 090

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun  014/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jun  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun  008/008-012/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/15
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor Storm           25/35/25
Major-severe storm    20/40/20