:Product: 0326RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2017 Mar 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 85 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27
Mar, 28 Mar, 29 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 462 km/s at 25/2103Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8330 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (27 Mar), active to
major storm levels on day two (28 Mar) and unsettled to major storm
levels on day three (29 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Mar 077
Predicted   27 Mar-29 Mar 078/078/078
90 Day Mean        26 Mar 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Mar  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar  016/025-028/040-024/035

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/30
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    10/15/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/35/15
Minor Storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    30/10/25