:Product: 1004RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Oct 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
04/0952Z from Region 3453 (N07W29). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Oct, 06 Oct,
07 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 478 km/s at 04/0846Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 04/0449Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
04/1920Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 201 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (05 Oct, 06
Oct, 07 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
Class M    30/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Oct 155
Predicted   05 Oct-07 Oct 160/162/162
90 Day Mean        04 Oct 161

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct  006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct  009/012-010/012-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/35
Minor Storm           10/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    40/40/50