:Product: 0907RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Sep 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Sep,
09 Sep, 10 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 519 km/s at 07/2118 UTC. Total IMF reached
17 nt at 07/1047 UTC. The maximum southward component of Bz reached 13
nT at 07/1953 UTC.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 428 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (08 Sep, 09
Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (10 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Sep 110
Predicted   08 Sep-10 Sep 110/110/110
90 Day Mean        07 Sep 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Sep  014/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep  023/032-016/024-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/15
Minor Storm           20/15/05
Major-severe storm    10/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/30/15