:Product: 0603RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2007 Jun 04 0026 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2007
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity reached high levels today. Region 960
(S09E50) produced three M-class flares; an M2.4 at 03/0159 UTC, an
M7.0 at 03/0212 UTC, and an M4.5 with an associated 330 sfu Tenflare
at 03/0641UTC. Region 960 also produced a C5.3 flare at 03/0928
UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep (speed 522 km/s). This
event is not expected to be geoeffective. Region 960 has been
classified as a beta gamma delta magnetic group with an area of
approximately 540 millionths.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at moderate to high levels with a chance for an X-class flare from
Region 960.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed at ACE
increased from approximately 370 km/s to 500 km/s from 03/1200 UTC
until 03/2100 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 04 June. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on 05 and 06 June. Based on the potential
for significant flare activity from Region 960, there is a slight 
chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event. 
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     10/15/15
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jun 087
Predicted   04 Jun-06 Jun  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        03 Jun 073
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun  005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun  010/010-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/15/15
Minor storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    10/01/01