:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Nov 12 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 1008 (N33W24)
produced todays only event, a B1 flare at 0009Z. The group appears
to be quiet and stable and apparently is no longer growing.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days. However, there continues to be just a
slight chance for an isolated C-class event from 1008.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was high during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the first and second days of the forecast
period (13-14 November). A small increase to quiet to unsettled is
expected on the third day (15 November) in response to slightly
elevated solar wind velocity from a favorably positioned weak
coronal hole. The presence of the elevated solar wind speed has also
been indicated by observations at the STEREO-B spacecraft.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Nov 071
Predicted   13 Nov-15 Nov  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        12 Nov 068
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov  005/005-005/005-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/20
Minor storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05