:Product: 0207RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Feb 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 038 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was high.  Region 1045 (N23W01) produced
two M-class events during the past 24 hours.  The first was a M1 at
06/2137Z and the second was a M6/1n at 07/0224Z.  The SOHO/LASCO C2
imagery observed a CME off the east limb with the first event and a
full halo with the second event.  The M6 x-ray event had an
associated EIT wave, and a Tenflare of 170sfu.  This region has
retained a magnetic beta-gamma configuration with a possible delta
magnetic configuration within its interior spots.  A new region was
numbered today as Region 1046 (N25E65).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with M-class events likely.  There is a slight chance
for a X-class event from Region 1045.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with isolated active conditions for the
next three days (08-10 February) due to a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream and CME effects.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Feb 090
Predicted   08 Feb-10 Feb  092/094/094
90 Day Mean        07 Feb 078
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb  002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb  010/010-008/009-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01