:Product: 0509RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 May 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  The visible disk was
spotless.  Region 1069 (N41W89) produced the only activity of the
period, a long duration, B1.3 x-ray event at 09/1541Z.  A slow
moving CME (estimated velocity 225 km/s) was observed early in the
period lifting off the NW limb in the vicinity of Region 1069.  The
CME did not appear to be Earth-directed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a slight chance of C-class activity on day one (10 May)
from departing Region 1069.  On days two and three (11 - 12 May),
solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  Solar wind velocities declined
steadily from 452 km/s to 375 km/s through the period.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet during day one (10 May) of the forecast period.
The field is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled, with a
slight chance for isolated active conditions, on days two and three
(11 - 12 May) due to recurrent co-rotating interaction
regions/coronal hole high speed wind streams.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 May-12 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 May 075
Predicted   10 May-12 May  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        09 May 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May  005/005-008/008-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May-12 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/25/20
Minor storm           01/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/30/30
Minor storm           01/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01