:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 May 14 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
The visible disk was spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period (15 - 17 May).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 Mev electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (15 -
16 May) with a chance for isolated active levels due to a coronal
hole high-speed stream. Field activity is expected to decrease to
quiet levels on day 3 (17 May).
III.  Event Probabilities 15 May-17 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 May 070
Predicted   15 May-17 May  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        14 May 080
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May  007/008-007/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/15
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01