:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jul 11 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 1087 (N19E44), a
beta magnetic classification, produced several B-class flares during
the past 24 hours.  The region continues to show a slight growth in
white light areal coverage and sunspot count.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.  A chance for a C-class flare and slight chance for a
M-class event is possible from Region 1087.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for day one (12 July).  Unsettled
conditions with isolated active levels are expected for days two and
three (13-14 July) due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jul 083
Predicted   12 Jul-14 Jul  084/085/083
90 Day Mean        11 Jul 075
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul  000/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul  005/005-008/008-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/20
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/20/30
Minor storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01