:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jul 13 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Todays activity consisted of
a C2/Sf flare at 13/1051Z from Region 1087 (N21E20).  1087 decreased
in areal coverage and spot number during the past 24 hours and is
currently classified as a Dso with a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration.  A new region, 1088 (S21E12), was numbered today. 
1088 is a simple Axx group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class event from
Region 1087.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods
on days one and two (14-15 July) due to a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream.  Quiet conditions are expected to return on day
three (16 July).
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jul 079
Predicted   14 Jul-16 Jul  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        13 Jul 074
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul  002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul  010/012-008/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/05
Minor storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    06/02/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/30/05
Minor storm           20/10/01
Major-severe storm    05/05/01